NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Chinese automakers are increasingly shifting from exporting vehicles to building them in Africa, betting that rapid urbanization, a growing middle class and supportive government policies will make the continent one of the industry's last major growth markets.
It's part of a strategy for coping with slowing demand at home and rising trade barriers in Europe and North America. Analysts say the shift could reshape Africa's automotive industry by creating jobs, developing local supply chains and accelerating adoption of electric vehicles, although weak infrastructure and policy uncertainty remain significant obstacles.
In July, Chery, China's largest auto exporter, acquired Nissan's former Rosslyn plant near Pretoria, South Africa, where it plans to make plug-in hybrids, battery-electric vehicles and models under its Jetour brand.
The move reflects a broader strategy by Chinese automakers to manufacture closer to African consumers rather than rely solely on imports, though the trend is just getting started.
Beijing Automotive Group (BAIC) has an automotive manufacturing and assembly facility in Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth), South Africa, and China's Great Wall Motor has some localized assembly and component distribution capacity.
"Africa has become known as the next frontier for the automotive market," said Hiten Parmar, executive director of The Electric Mission, a South African nonprofit promoting sustainable mobility.
Transition to EVs is accelerating in Africa
Analysts say South Africa, Morocco, Kenya, Ethiopia and Ghana are among the countries best positioned to attract Chinese EV investment because of their industrial capacity, supportive policies or growing electricity infrastructure. Morocco also benefits from proximity to European export markets, while Zimbabwe's large lithium reserves could support battery supply chains.
Local manufacturing could eventually lower vehicle prices by avoiding import duties while stimulating investment in charging infrastructure, component manufacturing and battery production. Africa's first large-scale battery gigafactory is already planned in Morocco.
Rapid urbanization, rising incomes and the relative affordability of Chinese brands are enabling Chinese automakers to capture markets historically dominated by European, Japanese and American giants.
"Whilst African consumers have been thriving on used cars, the affordability of Asian brands is providing a wider accessibility reach for new vehicles," Parmar said.
Nick Hedley, an energy transition research analyst at Zero Carbon Analytics, said Africa's fast-growing population and expanding middle class create a natural market for affordable electric vehicles while helping governments reduce dependence on imported fuel.
"Africa is also a net importer of refined fuels, which drains foreign reserves and weighs on local currencies and budgets," Hedley said. "Switching to local electric cars for transportation is in African countries' national interest."
"As electric vehicles become more cost-competitive, their uptake will accelerate across Africa, and Chinese automakers will benefit," Hedley said.
The shift is also being driven by changing economics inside China.
Tombo Banda, managing director of CrossBoundary Group, a renewable energy consultancy, said Chinese factories are producing more vehicle s than the domestic market can absorb while exports face mounting barriers.
"Onshoring production on the continent is a sound long-term investment," Banda said, noting that local manufacturing helps companies navigate tariffs while positioning themselves closer to fast-growing markets.
Governments are aligning transport policies for energy security
A Green Minerals Strategy adopted by the African Union aims to increase domestic processing of critical minerals. That would make more usable raw materials available locally.
Ethiopia has banned imports of fossil fuel-powered vehicles and is encouraging local production by mandating lower import duties on EVs assembled domestically.
South Africa has taken a different approach, using production incentives like customs duty rebates, production-linked credits, direct cash investments, and tax breaks to encourage investment in electric- and hydrogen fueled-vehicle manufacturing.
"This is becoming a notable change in approach from Asian brands, from pure imports, to considerations of assembly and manufacturing," Parmar said.
Africa is increasingly positioned to become more than just a destination for imported vehicles.
"If Chinese manufacturers want access to these markets, they need to add value locally rather than simply sell into them," Banda said. "That is what will move Africa from a sales market to a genuine manufacturing base."
South Africa has a head start
South Africa already has manufacturing capacity, skilled workers and established export markets, Banda said. Purchasing facilities such as the Rosslyn plant can enable automakers to retool existing factories rather than build new ones from scratch.
"Companies can pivot, or enter partnerships, far faster than anyone starting from scratch," she said.
But she cautioned that converting factories designed for internal combustion engines is complex and requires long-term certainty on taxes, tariffs and industrial policy.
Stable policies are essential, since sudden changes in taxes or regulations can undermine investor confidence. Reliable infrastructure is also vital.
"Without clean, reliable, affordable electricity, forget about operating EVs. Without sufficient, well-located charging, forget about functional EVs," Banda said.
